Airport Experience® News - Conference Issue 2026

numerous reasons for this change: More than 40% of survey respondents said they are worried about rising travel costs, and a nearly equal number said political tensions are impacting their decision. New U.S. entry rules have also been cited as key reasons that Canadians are choosing to travel to other destinations or not travel at all. Despite this alarming trend in 2025, the U.S. Travel Association report predicts higher U.S. travel growth rates in 2026 and beyond, thanks to the FIFA 2026 World Cup, America’s 250th Anniversary, the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, the Men’s and Women’s Rugby World Cups in 2031 and 2033, and the 2034 Winter Games in Salt Lake City. The report predicts that international inbound visits will grow 3.7% in 2026—it’s not enough to make up for the predicted drop in 2025, but by 2029 international inbound visits could reach 81.9 million, surpassing historic highs.

Travel in 2026 is going to be shaped by a wide range of factors, both good and bad. Political uneasiness and economic concerns have the potential to negatively affect travel, as has occurred in 2025, while upcoming cultural events and the continued advancement of AI and other technologies could very well encourage more travel, especially among Millennials and Gen Zers. These are some of the key issues and trends that will impact the industry this year and beyond. International Travel Will Rebound—Somewhat It’s no secret that the U.S. travel landscape in 2025 was marred by political tension and economic turmoil that greatly affected international inbound travel, in particular. In fact, an October report by the U.S. Travel Association forecast that international inbound travel

would decrease in 2025 for the first time since 2020. The report shows that inbound international travel spending was projected to decrease 3.2% to $173 billion, with visits falling 6.3% to 67.9 million, or just 85% of 2019 traffic levels. According to the report, which sourced data driven by the Tourism Economics forecasting model, the primary cause of the inbound travel decrease was significantly fewer travelers from Canada to the U.S. due to strained relations between the countries. According to the Travel Health Insurance Association of Canada ’s 2025 Winter Smart Traveller Survey, which was released in November, only 26% of Canadians planned to travel to the U.S. over the winter, marking a 37% drop from previous years. Travelers aged 61 and older drove this trend, with just 10% planning to visit the U.S. this winter, a 66% drop from 2024. The survey cites

U.S. TRAVEL FORECAST — VOLUME

ACTUAL

FORECAST

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Total # of trips

2.40 B 1.60 B 2.04 B 2.30 B 2.37 B 2.43 B 2.47 B 2.52 B 2.58 B 2.65 B 2.71 B

Domestic person-trips

2.32 B 1.58 B 2.02 B 2.25 B 2.31 B 2.36 B 2.40 B 2.45 B 2.51 B 2.57 B 2.62 B

Leisure

1.85 B 1.40 B 1.77 B 1.88 B 1.89 B 1.92 B 1.96 B 2.00 B 2.05 B 2.09 B 2.14 B

Business

463.9 M 181.3 M 249.5 M 370.9 M 413.1 M 436.0 M 442.4 M 451.2 M 463.3 M 475.4 M 487.2 M

Auto

2.13 B 1.50 B 1.88 B 2.08 B 2.12 B 2.16 B 2.20 B 2.25 B 2.30 B 2.35 B 2.41 B

Air

188.9 M 78.6 M 140.4 M 174.6 M 190.7 M 200.2 M 199.8 M 203.4 M 208.8 M 213.9 M 219.1 M

International arrivals

79.4 M 19.2 M 22.3 M 50.8 M 66.3 M 72.4 M 67.9 M 70.4 M 74.4 M 78.1 M 81.9 M

Canada

20.7 M 4.8 M 2.5 M 14.4 M 20.5 M 20.2 M 15.7 M 16.8 M 17.9 M 19.0 M 20.1 M

Mexico

18.3 M 6.8 M 10.6 M 12.4 M 14.4 M 17.0 M 17.9 M 18.4 M 19.1 M 19.6 M 20.1 M

Overseas

40.4 M 7.6 M 9.2 M 24.0 M 31.5 M 35.2 M 34.2 M 35.2 M 37.4 M 39.5 M 41.7 M

U.S. TRAVEL FORECAST — VOLUME, YOY % CHANGE ACTUAL

FORECAST

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Total # of trips

-33.2% 27.6% 12.7% 3.1% 2.4% 1.6% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.71 B

Domestic person-trips

-31.8% 27.8% 11.4% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.62 B

Leisure

-24.5% 26.5% 6.2% 0.7% 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.14 B

Business

-60.9% 37.6% 48.6% 11.4% 5.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 487.2 M

Auto

-29.4% 25.1% 10.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.41 B

Air

-58.4% 78.6% 24.3% 9.2% 5.0% -0.2% 1.8% 2.7% 2.4% 2.5% 219.1 M

International arrivals

-75.8% 16.0% 127.9% 30.7% 9.1% -6.3% 3.7% 5.6% 5.0% 4.8% 81.9 M

Canada

-76.8% -47.4% 468.7% 42.6% -1.3% -22.2% 6.4% 6.7% 6.4% 5.6% 20.1 M

Mexico

-62.9% 55.3% 17.6% 15.5% 18.3% 5.5% 2.7% 3.5% 2.8% 2.6% 20.1 M

Overseas

-81.2% 20.8% 161.1% 31.4% 11.7% -2.7% 3.0% 6.3% 5.5% 5.6% 41.7 M

Source: U.S. Travel Association

27

AX NEWS MARCH 2026