Airport Experience® News - Pre-Conference Issue 2025

“Restaurant operators need to position themselves as the guide, not the hero,” she continues. “They are guiding the consumer to a healthy solution and consumers will be the hero in their own lives by patronizing their restaurant.” Value Matters Robert Byrne, senior director of consumer research for Technomic, believes that 2025 will find consumers ready to spend at restaurants, but not as often as they may like to. “Lower grocery prices will have a muted effect, as cheaper at-home options may increase household discretionary spending budgets; however, menu prices will not be coming down. We will see a slower rate of menu inflation, but not enough to allow diners to increase their restaurant frequency,” he says. “As a result, they will continue practicing ‘impact spending,’ where the restaurant occasion is a splurge and diners will be happy to spend for the food and experience they want, just not as often as they want. Consumers are always looking for value, but price wars are proving ineffective and brands who do not discount – for example, Texas Roadhouse – are doing very well,” Byrne continues. “Consumers want what they want, and they are all too happy to pay a bit more, wait a bit longer, and be a bit more inconvenienced for the food and experience they crave. This means that value will be more of a what-you-get than a what-you-pay consideration.”

Kostyo of Menu Matters finds the current U.S. restaurant landscape to be a bit perplexing. “It’s in such an unusual place right now: Limited-service restaurants had been doing better compared to full-service options, but many brands have seen traffic declines while they’re all in a price war with each other. Fast-casuals have done comparatively better because they’ve been able to stay out of the price wars to some extent and grab traffic from consumers who are trading down from more expensive full-service restaurants. Full service restaurants continue to perform poorly overall, though many fine dining operators have been protected because the luxury market is still doing well. The real story is how many occasions have moved to supermarkets and at-home occasions. This year consumers told us they’re experimenting more at home than they are at restaurants, which is a huge change.” But, Kostyo adds, there are bright spots in every dining segment and those who are performing best are those with a clear value proposition. “A lot of consumers today say dining out just isn’t worth it, so brands that focus on making sure their food, value and service scores are high are doing well,” he says. “And it’s not always about cost: The Chili’s $10.99 lunch deal is more than twice as expensive as the McDonald’s $5 meal, but consumers think the value is there. I think the story will continue to be that particular brands are the real standouts.” Kevin Schimpf, director of industry research for Technomic, forecasts that the fast casual segment will post the strongest sales growth overall for 2024, echoing 2023 results. “It’s worth mentioning that much of the sales growth in the fast-casual segment is being generated by players that have become increasingly similar to QSRs,” Schimpf says. “Chipotle is a great example of this with their ongoing drive-thru development and emphasis on digital ordering,” he says “So the best answer as to which dining segment will perform best in 2025 might be limited-service restaurants overall. Players like Chick-fil-A, Chipotle, Raising Cane’s, Wingstop, Jersey Mike’s, Culver’s and Dutch Bros Coffee are the best examples of big players continually seeing double-digit sales growth.” Paslay Group’s Von Hoene, notes that fast, made-to-order restaurant options remain strong. “Consumers like having fresh and healthy food quickly prepared to their own tastes and dietary preferences, such as at Cava, Chopt and Chipotle,” she says. “We could see other cuisines emerge using this service model.”

Above: Kevin Schimpf, director of industry research for Technomic, forecasts that limited-service restaurants will perform best in 2025, including such big names as Chick-fil-A, Chipotle, Raising Cane’s, Wingstop, Jersey Mike’s, Culver’s and Dutch Bros Coffee.

Goliath Consulting Group’s Bandy notes that Cava, in particular, is “crushing it” right now and is expected to continue to see success in 2025, along with Chipotle. “Casual dining is going to have a difficult 2025 – Chili’s has figured it out but many chains are lagging; QSR has turned back to value and will continue this trend into 2025 and see moderate sales increases; and fine dining is hanging on when the restaurant focuses holistically on the experience.” Bandy adds that quality of food and service still leads the charge. “Experiences added on top of this makes the difference. Karaoke, duck pin bowling, darts – they all help restaurants stand out.” Synergy’s Small also signals experiential dining as an important differentiator. “Unique in-venue experiences – for example, immersive decor, interactive elements, digital experiences – are a growing draw for diners seeking more than just food.” And what is clear to Kostyo is that diners are increasingly seeking more than just food. “One of the most interesting things that has come out of our research recently is how important multisensory experiences are for consumers,” he says. “When we asked consumers which senses they prioritize when making a food decision, taste came out on top with 69 percent of consumers choosing it, but scent and aroma wasn’t far behind at 61 percent. And while sound was in last place, in follow-up questions about sensory experiences, sound-related options like sizzling fajitas and listening bars rose to the top of what consumers wanted. “Operators have a real chance to stand out from the types of meals consumers are having and making at home if they would focus on multisensory experiences,” he continues. “How can you play with the aroma of an operation or dish, how can you add crunch to a drink, how can you get consumers playing with their food and being a little more hands on?”

Above: Robert Byrne, senior director of consumer research for Technomic, believes that 2025 will find consumers ready to spend at restaurants, but not as often as they may like to since menu prices aren’t going to decline. Instead, he predicts consumers will splurge on the occasional meal out, willing to pay more for what they deem to be more valuable.

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AX NEWS FEBRUARY 2025